Monday, March 26, 2018

Chicago, IL – With his poll numbers underwater, the Illinois Republican Party in shambles, and his base (or lack thereof) in revolt after three years of failure, political observers are wondering: Is Bruce Rauner toast? Here’s a look at what they’ve been saying since his rough and tumble Tuesday night:

Fox News: Bruce Rauner is a governor without a party

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WIFR: “Bruce Rauner is the most vulnerable incumbent in the nation”

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WTTW: Election results “a disaster for Bruce Rauner”

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WSIL: “Bruce Rauner had the weakest primary showing Tuesday by an Illinois Republican governor since way back in 1928.”

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Politico: Is this embattled Republican governor toast?

In the span of one day, Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s fortunes went from bad to worse. He was already widely considered to be the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country. Then came Tuesday’s Illinois primary, where he spent $17 million on TV ads but barely squeaked out a victory against a nearly unknown state legislator.

Northwest Herald: Even if he rallies his base, Gov. Bruce Rauner faces uphill general election campaign

There are about 230 days until the November general election.

Gov. Bruce Rauner is going to need every last one of them if he has any hopes of winning re-election.

Called the most vulnerable Republican governor by national media and political pundits, Rauner barely survived a contentious primary election Tuesday against a low-financed lawmaker who only a few months ago was barely known outside of her suburban Chicago district.

Conservative Rep. Jeanne Ives, R-Wheaton, ran a competitive race on a mostly shoestring budget – her $4 million fundraising total is a shoestring when compared with that of multimillionaire Rauner, who gave his own campaign $50 million last year.

Despite the financial inequity, Ives finished about 3 percentage points behind the incumbent governor.

National Journal: Why Bruce Rauner Is the Most Vulnerable Governor

Tuesday’s primary election results served as a stinging rebuke to Rauner’s record—from within his own party. Remarkably, Rauner lagged behind little-known conservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives in many of the suburban Chicago collar counties (DuPage, Will, and McHenry) that gave him widespread support in his first campaign.

Polls show Pritzker with a sizable early lead. If those results hold, Rauner will be a victim of the GOP’s identity crisis in the age of Trump. He’s a GOP donor-turned-governor still chasing after affluent suburban voters when they’re increasingly disillusioned by the Republican Party—without offering much to working-class voters in return. All the money in the world can’t change that reality.

Washington Post: Why GOP Illinois governor Bruce Rauner may be the most endangered governor in the nation

Illinois’s embattled Republican governor, Bruce Rauner, narrowly managed to fend off a socially conservative primary challenger Tuesday, sending him into the general election as one of the most endangered governors in the nation.

But being outspent could be the least of Rauner’s worries come November.

For one, he’s running for reelection as a Republican in a Democratic state, a state that voted for Hillary Clinton by nearly 20 points. And he must make a compelling reelection bid after presiding over one of the worst modern fiscal crises of any state, which left Illinois without a full budget for two years, downgraded its credit rating to nearly junk status and made Rauner one of the least popular governors in America.

State Journal-Register: Winning back Ives supporters will take time

The dust from the primary election has had a chance to settle a bit, but one thing seems clear: Gov. Bruce Rauner will have his hands full trying to win over supporters of Rep. Jeanne Ives.

Rauner’s going to need her supporters in November if the predictions come true of a huge Democratic turnout. He may need to make a more public display of soliciting their support than he has so far.

About the only positive thing Ives has said so far about Rauner since election night is that she would vote for him in November because he is a Republican. She said she would not endorse him or campaign for him.

And then there was the post-election interview she did with WBEZ where she was asked if Rauner or Democratic challenger J.B. Pritzker would make a better governor. Forty seconds of silence followed before Ives uttered Rauner’s name.

Chicago Magazine: Downstate Saved Bruce Rauner Last Night (and Put Pritzker Way Over the Top)

Last night, incumbent governor Bruce Rauner just barely edged out Jeanne Ives, a state representative from the DuPage county seat of Wheaton, by 2.98 percentage points, or a mere 20,122 votes, after polling well ahead of her and raising much more money—$215 per vote, according to the Illinois Campaign for Political reform, compared to Ives’s $12 per vote.

It doesn’t seem like great news for Rauner, bleeding support in what was his breakthrough area, and losing much of it to a candidate who started her campaign late, and even with the support of the Uihleins, was vastly outspent by Rauner.

Southern Illinoisan: More questions than answers: Republicans split in Southern Illinois on who to support for governor in November

If Southern Illinois was any indicator, Jeanne Ives would have beaten Gov. Bruce Rauner in Tuesday’s primary and local Republicans are not sure what this means for the general election in November.

“It’s going to be harder to bring everyone back together,” said Patti Howard, president of the Williamson County Republican Women of Southern Illinois.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch: After dismal primary showing, turbulent times ahead for Illinois’ GOP

Gov. Bruce Rauner had the hardest time of any statewide primary candidate. He had to convince Republican voters that his leadership during a two-year budget impasse had somehow left the state better off. Despite donating $50 million to his own campaign and spending $16.5 million on attack ads, Rauner managed only to squeak past his conservative primary challenger, state Rep. Jeanne Ives.

Vox: Embattled Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner wins his primary

Illinois’s Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner eked out a narrow win in his primary battle against a conservative state lawmaker on Tuesday night.

The incumbent candidate declared victory even before media outlets felt comfortable calling the race, claiming the Republican ticket for November over challenger Jeanne Ives, who managed to tighten the race to single digits. The Associated Press called the race at 10:29 pm local time with Rauner up 3 points.

But while Rauner has won this fight, his battle for the general election is looking a lot more fraught.

Chicago Tribune: Bruce Rauner isn’t the change Illinois voters want this time

The Republican governor has taken on House Speaker Michael Madigan and many of the state’s debilitating policies. But he has done so without much success. For two years, he and the General Assembly had not been able to agree on a budget, forcing the state to operate without one. Illinois has a $8.3 billion backlog of unpaid bills, the highest pension debt in the country and the lowest bond rating. A survey of CEOs ranked its business climate the third-worst of all the states.

Rauner will no doubt try to make the campaign about Madigan, as he did in the primary. But he’s given his constituents no reason to think he’ll fare any better against the real power in Springfield in the next four years. And he can’t even count on Republican voters to turn out for him, given that nearly half of them voted for his conservative primary challenger, state Rep. Jeanne Ives.

Chicago Sun-Times: MAP: Compare Bruce Rauner’s primary victory to Trump, Clinton 2016 Illinois vote

Gov. Bruce Rauner eked out a victory in the primary on Tuesday against conservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives to win the Republican nomination.

Rauner captured more votes than Ives did in 63 of Illinois’ 102 counties in snagging the nomination by a margin of 51 percent to 49 percent.

Despite winning, political observers have described the results as a failure on Rauner’s part to get traditional Republican votes.

“Some of the Ives voters won’t vote for Rauner in the general election,” said former Chicago Ald. Dick Simpson, a University of Illinois at Chicago political science professor.

Northwest Herald: State Rep. Steve Reick blasts Gov. Bruce Rauner in blog post

So Governor, now that we’re stuck with you, here’s a little bit of advice. You need us more than we need you. The only way you can win in November is if Republican House candidates drag you across the finish line. But for that to happen, you’re going to have to check your ego at the door and accept the General Assembly as a co-equal branch of government and admit that we don’t work for you.

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